Below-Normal Rainfall Predicted for Northern Greater Horn of Africa in 2026, Threatening Food Security and Livelihoods
Nairobi, Kenya — The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) has issued a stark warning: much of the northern Greater Horn of Africa is likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the crucial June-September rainy season in 2026. This forecast, released by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), a World Meteorological Organization (WMO)-designated regional climate center, has raised alarms over potential disruptions to food security, water availability, and livelihoods across the region.
The affected areas include large portions of South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, and sections of western and coastal Kenya. The June-September rainy season is particularly vital, accounting for over half of the annual rainfall in many northern regions and more than 80% in Sudan. A deficit during this period could have devastating consequences for millions who rely on rain-fed agriculture, livestock, hydropower, and water supply systems.
Climate Predictions Echo Past El Niño Conditions
According to ICPAC, the 2026 climate conditions bear similarities to previous strong El Niño years, such as 1997 and 2023, when Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, and western Kenya experienced significantly reduced rainfall. These historical patterns provide valuable insights for preparedness efforts, though ICPAC emphasized that the 2026 seasonal forecast remains the primary reference for planning and decision-making.
The WMO is expected to release an updated outlook on El Niño conditions in early June, which may further refine predictions. Meanwhile, ICPAC highlighted the importance of translating these forecasts into actionable early warning systems and coordinated responses to mitigate potential impacts.
Regional Variations in Rainfall Distribution
The forecast reveals distinct spatial variations across the region. While near-normal rainfall is expected in northern Sudan, southern coastal Somalia, and parts of Kenya, central, northeastern, and northwestern Ethiopia, southern Sudan, and northern Uganda are likely to face significant deficits, with northeastern Ethiopia projected to experience the strongest shortfalls.
Isolated pockets of enhanced rainfall are anticipated in northern Sudan, southeastern Ethiopia, and parts of Somalia, including southern and northern coastal areas. Additionally, parts of South Sudan, Ethiopia, and southern Sudan may see a delayed onset of rains, while localized areas in north-central Ethiopia and central Sudan could experience near-normal or slightly early rains.
Rising Temperatures Compound Water Stress
Adding to the challenges, above-normal temperatures are forecast across much of the Greater Horn of Africa, with the strongest warming signals expected in northern Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. These conditions could exacerbate water stress and evaporation losses, further straining already vulnerable ecosystems and communities.
GHACOF Calls for Regional Cooperation and Preparedness
The GHACOF meeting, held on May 18-19, 2026, brought together representatives from all 11 IGAD member states—Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda—alongside stakeholders from agriculture, water, health, disaster risk management, climate change, media, NGOs, humanitarian agencies, and development partners.
The forum underscored the critical need for integrating seasonal forecasts into practical early warning systems and coordinated responses. This collaborative approach aims to reduce the humanitarian and economic impacts of climate variability in one of the world’s most climate-sensitive regions.
Moving Forward
As the region braces for the potential impacts of below-normal rainfall, ICPAC urged National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) across member states to issue detailed country-specific forecasts and advisories to support preparedness planning and early action.
The looming threat of reduced rainfall serves as a stark reminder of the interconnected challenges posed by climate change. For millions in the Greater Horn of Africa, the season ahead will be a test of resilience and adaptability in the face of unpredictable weather patterns and escalating environmental pressures.
— Reported by Nexio News
